第 59卷・第 3期
發行於 九月, 2016
| 各期期刊 |
「馬習會」對兩岸政治談判的民意衝擊：一項臺灣民眾的民意調查分析
楊喜慧(Hsi-Hui Yang) ； 鄭龍水(Long-Shui Cheng) ； 陳明通(Ming-Tong Chen)
中國大陸研究 ； 59卷3期 (2016 / 09 / 01) ， P1 - 38
繁體中文
摘要：
本論文為一政策導向的論文，主要在探討「馬習會」後，國人何以對兩岸政治談判的支持度急速下滑？是因為馬總統在習近平面前不夠捍衛臺灣主權與尊嚴，擔心其無法勝任未來的兩岸政治談判？還是習近平的表現讓臺灣人民覺得其不可信任，未來兩岸如果走到政治深水區，臺灣不可能從習近平手中獲得什麼好處，而影響到臺灣人民對兩岸政治談判的意願？為了回答此一問題，本論文透過兩次民調，探討國人對「馬習會」的評價，並比較「馬習會」前後，臺灣民眾對兩岸政治談判的看法。研究結果發現，「馬習會」前贊成兩岸政治談判的民眾高達67.3%，不贊成13.7%；但是「馬習會」後贊成52.6%，不贊成34.2%；兩相比較，贊成兩岸政治談判下降14.7%；不贊成則提高20.5%，一來一往相差35.2%。為何如此？本論文透過「二元勝算對數模型」分析發現，主要問題出在習近平，因為對習不信任感增加，而降低兩岸政治談判的意願；也出在民眾整體感覺「馬習會」對臺灣比較不利，既然如此，進一步談判兩岸政治關係的意願當然會下降。這樣的研究結果，不僅具有學術意義，亦具有政策指導功能，是為本論文最大的貢獻。
從中美與東亞間貿易的互動看中國大陸的貿易在垂直生產的角色：基於貿易數據之觀察
洪淑芬(Shu-Fen Hung)
中國大陸研究 ； 59卷3期 (2016 / 09 / 01) ， P39 - 82
繁體中文
摘要：
本研究的主要目的是探討中美貿易在與東亞主要經濟體貿易互動中的特徵，並根據聯合國（United Nations）生產階段（production stages）的大類經濟類別（Broad Economic Categories; BEC）的數據及Lafay國際專業化指標探討中國大陸對東亞主要經濟體、美國以及歐盟十五國的外貿比較優勢，進而了解中國大陸貿易在東亞國際垂直生產階段的角色。結論發現，中國大陸不但在中間產品對世界與東亞的貿易已由貿易逆差轉變為貿易順差，而且中國大陸最終產品中的消費品對世界的貿易由貿易順差轉變為貿易逆差。中國大陸貿易結構與生產分工已不再是簡單的加工組裝貿易，同時中國大陸對東亞經濟體（日韓）的貿易也不再以進口中間產品再做簡單的加工裝配為主，而是有生產技術產品所需的機械設備的資本品的出口。
Is China a Challenger? The Predicament of China's Reformist Initiatives in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
陳宗巖(Ian Tsung-Yen Chen)
中國大陸研究 ； 59卷3期 (2016 / 09 / 01) ， P83 - 109
英文
摘要：
This paper assesses whether the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank（AIIB）signals China's reformist intention in the area of international development. I use both descriptive and inferential statistics to compare power distribution in the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank（ADB）, and the AIIB, and the composition of the AIIB membership. Evidence shows that there is no obvious structural difference in voting power among the three banks. The major difference between them is that China is the most powerful state in the AIIB. For the time being, at least, the AIIB does not signal Beijing's intention to reform the current system. Instead, the bank seems to be an instrument for China to compete with established international financial institutions. However, Beijing may be faced with several challenges. First, dissatisfied members of the World Bank will not find a remedy for the organization's shortcomings in the AIIB. The problem of unequal representation structure remains. Second, the AIIB is unlikely to facilitate formation of a China-led alliance, nor is it likely to adopt global best practice due to disparity of interests among its members. Third, Washington and Tokyo are probably right to refuse to join the AIIB and to devote more attention to strengthening the World Bank and the ADB instead. Greater competition among the three is likely to reduce the AIIB's influence. To sum up, it is difficult to detect any reformist intention behind the AIIB, and it is still too weak an organization to facilitate formation of a strong alliance by means of which China can carry out its international agenda.
One Belt, One Road: Visions and Challenges of China's Geoeconomic Strategy
蒲曉宇(Xiaoyu Pu)
中國大陸研究 ； 59卷3期 (2016 / 09 / 01) ， P111 - 132
英文
摘要：
This article aims to provide a conceptual and theoretical framework to analyze motivations, dilemmas, and challenges of China's OBOR strategy. The article argues that OBOR could be viewed as China's new geoeconomic strategy. Potentially creating a new, China-led economic, diplomatic, and security system, OBOR has great potential to transform China's domestic and foreign policy. Uncertainties of OBOR are largely due to the fact that China is still uncertain about its role on the world stage. While OBOR is an ambitious plan, it faces many challenges, including security threats, geopolitical competition, and regional backlash. As political logic potentially trumps economic rationales, OBOR might worsen the policy atmosphere of China's market-driven reform. Ultimately, the future of China's economic power will shape OBOR's trajectory.
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